Excessive rains over the past two weeks triggered a large mudslide in southern Leyte in the central Philippines, burying the entire village of Guinsaugon. So far, there are 23 confirmed fatalities, but hundreds more are feared dead as 1,500 people are reported missing. The excessive rains have been linked to La Nina. In December, cooler ocean waters began to emerge in the central equitorial Pacific signaling the onset of a La Nina. La Nina is associated with above normal sea surface temperatures in the West Pacific and stronger trade winds. This pattern can significantly enhance rainfall across the West Pacific region. Warnings had been issued for this potential scenario.

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission or TRMM satellite was launched into service in November of 1997. It was designed to measure rainfall over the global Tropics using both passive and active sensors, including the first and only precipitation radar in space. The TRMM-based, near- real time Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (MPA) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center monitors rainfall over the global Tropics. MPA rainfall totals for the period 4-17 February 2006 are shown for the Philippines. The highest amounts recorded by the MPA for this period are on the order of 30 inches (darkest red area) and are located over the northern tip of Mindanao. However, rainfall totals over southern Leyte do approach 20 inches (small orange area north of the larger red area) with 10-inch amounts (green areas) over the surrounding area. The northern tip of Mindanao is separated from southern Leyte by the narrow Surigao Strait.